There is a huge pre-election distraction being played out in America this summer. It reopens in July - the 11th - when the "convicted" Donald Trump will face sentencing after being the first American president in history convicted of a felony. There's a l (2024)

There is a huge pre-election distraction being played out in America this summer. It reopens in July – the 11th – when the “convicted” Donald Trump will face sentencing after being the first American president in history convicted of a felony.

There’s a long list of legal flaws in what we have come to think of as a Kangaroo Kourt. Starting with the fact that it’s all based on a legal fiction. In other words, misdemeanor in Federal law is up charged to something else in NY State laws. Then there’s the significant issue of the “core felony” not being named (and thus, no defense permitted) and the hopping judge in this not requiring Constitutional unanimity in reaching a guilty verdict.

Why, to us, it smacks of a third-rate banana republic. Especially when we draw your attention to 18 U.S.C. § 242. According to the FBI website this is (or at leastwas) a far reaching protection:

“Acts under “color of any law” include acts not only done by federal, state, or local officials within the bounds or limits of their lawful authority, but also acts done without and beyond the bounds of their lawful authority; provided that, in order for unlawful acts of any official to be done under “color of any law,” the unlawful acts must be done while such official is purporting or pretending to act in the performance of his/her official duties. This definition includes, in addition to law enforcement officials, individuals such as Mayors, Council persons, Judges, Nursing Home Proprietors, Security Guards, etc., persons who are bound by laws, statutes ordinances, or customs.”

Elaine and I had our afternoon glass of wine in the 180-room as the verdict came in. Disappointed? Of course. Anything we can do about it? Not so much.

Besides, we have Bigger Problems ahead.

Illusions of Income

Just out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Personal income increased $65.3 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in April. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $42.8 billion (0.2 percent) and consumer spending increased $39.1 billion (0.2 percent). Personal saving was $744.5 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.6 percent in April.

Wanna buy a bridge, somewhere?

PMI data comes after the open of markets today.

Depression II Looms

We are, like last night’s dinner, “forked.” Market futures are indicating a down break again at the opening today.

In case you hadn’t noticed, from the Dow all-time high May 17th (close) of a skosh over 40,000, the Dow has dropped nearly 2,000 points. 1,958 and change at the 6:15 AM mark before the open today.

The damage is becoming apparent in the chart of our Aggregate Index. Which we invented to eliminate the (ongoing) debate over how to weight tech versus old-school, hard goods manufacturing and the financial notionals.

The Fate of (dollar-dependent) humanity will likely be determined in the coming week to 10-days as we come down to an important set of potential support lines. See the hot pink trend line upper right.

If we bounce there, it’s possible the phony liberals in finance will manipulate the market up to the middle of July. About when the Trump “sentencing” Kabuki rolls and when we begin thinking about the NostradamusKing of Terrors.

And with good reason. A rally to what’s now the upper trend could be the maraschino on the whip cream (or equally frothy markets and cryptos) that sets up the larger (yellow scale) Wave 3 down. This is the part where in the next year or three we could see the Dow lose half its value.

Here’s the Thing About Depression II

With the Federal Debt at $34.621 trillion – which pencils out to $213,709.87 for every employed tax-generating human in America – we could still hyperinflate or return to a massive deflation.

The stock market could soar to unbelievable heights – and so could the prices of everything else. Our own American Weimar.

There is a small (but non-zero) chance that Donald Trump is replaying the historical role of Adolph Hitler from the Weimar period. You see, it was during the final inflation in Germany – brought on by the WW I debt burdens placed on it, that a certain beer hall event took place. Recounted in Wikipedia as:

“In an incident in September 1921, he and some men of the SA had disrupted a meeting of the Bayernbund (‘Bavaria Union’) which Otto Ballerstedt, a Bavarian federalist, was to have addressed, and the Nazi troublemakers were arrested as a result. Hitler ended up serving just over a month of a three-month jail sentence.”

That’s a pretty good guess as to how long Trump wouldactually serve if/when the Kangaroo Kourt sets jail time. We would also expect there to be a book out of this period to complete a kind of Mein Kampf riff.

Thus, we could envision a general, angry public reaction to Trump punishment plans that could ignite enough pushback on the Biden regime that a pardoned might come after a month or so of confinement. It’s a fascinating possibility.

The Economics of Inflation

While the hyperinflation possibility looms – and we’ll be watching gold and silver prices closely for clues – remember the concept of “purchasing power parity” in your financial decisions in these times ahead. It may be that hyperinflation arrives, in which case, our counsel (which we never offer) would be to pay off all your debts with far less-valuable “dollars” should hyperinflation occur.

And then – might have been a recent Clif High outlook? – consider rolling from silver into gold should the trajectory take precious metals to parity with one-another.

To which we would consider adding a “wash.” If one were to make money in silver, then transfer gains into gold, it might not be a bad thing to consider a lateral move into government bonds – because in order to prop up the House of Cards, the government may not be inclined to default on its own “actual” bonds. Everyone else? Take the hindmost.

As often happens in the middle of a good hysteria (Trump case) the real and impactful “indicator story” may be just out of the public consciousness: Zero-down mortgages are making a comeback.

There is an alternative to the hyperinflation. And that would be that after the next Trump-walk for the dems to make commercials out of for the War Party this fall, that Deflation will return, instead.

I previously told you a Fed rate decrease to “goose the economy into the election” at the September Fed meeting is likely. And keep your eyes open for other deflation precursors like BOE cash demand hits record highand Gold rises as dollar, bond yields decline after US data; silver drops 1.3%.

Interesting times, these – it’s the Financial Sector of “Off-Roading.”

Three-War Monte

The West-Pac War: Recent Reader remarks (in our Comments section) have been inspecting the idea that any (likely) Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely “be over before the U.S. could even respond.”

A kind of “Long Yuan Blitz Kong” attack style, which somehow the Shaolin forgot to teach visiting foreign devils. (George shrugs.) US defence secretary raises concerns about China’s military activity, Pentagon says.

People on Taiwan know the risk of a blitz, to0. Despite all the happy talk Fearing war with China, civilians in Taiwan prepare for disaster.

China watchers may try to read something into Beijing is scrapping part of its preferential tariff agreement with Taiwan. We think one reason could be “It soon won’t matter, anymore.” You following?

Middle East Stews:Western petro-imperialism, accentuated by Biden malpractice on U.S. energy development, continues attempts to dominate the already-lost Middle East. Houthi rebels say at least 16 killed and 42 others wounded in joint US-British airstrikes in Yemen, but that’s not the future.

For clues you need to remain focused on Gaza and various people standing up for what’s right. US State Department official resigns, says US report on Gaza inaccurate.. With the U.S. “aid pier” broken, it’s becoming ever more clear that Israel will not return the beachfront real estate it now dominates. Israel won’t end Gaza war even if Hamas releases all hostages: National security adviser.

Our biggest fear now is that there could come a “scorched earth” play – where a nuke would be set off in Gaza (finishing off depopulation) while at the same time giving cause to a claim of Iran nuke use…and then we’re all in gas lines, is the point. If a sudden Israeli total withdrawal from Gaza happens, keep the flash goggles handy. And heads down in Isfahan immediately thereafter because that would follow, as well.

For now, the world’s leading Nostradamus expert, G.A. Stewart keeps a close watch on the south of Gaza as the militaries are upping their game, as well. Fresh from a recent reelection, Stu’s guidance to expect Egypt to be the key pivot is working out in headlines since. Egypt’s (president) el-Sisi calls to remove Israeli ‘blockade’ over Gaza (ynetnews.com). Which is about coincident on the timeline to Rafah battles intensify as Israel seizes key Gaza-Egypt corridor – Euractiv. You don’t need to be Nostradamus to see the escalation potential here, nor how a small nuke as scorched earth could be less remote in the statistical margins.

Rounding Out the War Trifecta? Ground war in Europe is coming – and likely before this fall’s election. The die is cast: Nuclear map of Europe issued by Russians – Target all NATO bases on European soil (vid).

We remain convinced that Joe Biden and the War Party will cross a Russian nuclear “line in the sand” before Summer is out. Especially since Biden administration lifts ban on Ukraine firing U.S. weapons into Russia territory – UPI.com.

If the shoe were on the other foot, how would the U.S. respond to Cuba being given the green light to attack the U.S. homeland from Cuba and then begin hitting oil refining and rigs along the Gulf coast?

Biden will get us in gas lines, lockdown, and thereby (he believe) re-elected. We just don’t happen to be so delusional.

But the American Public Is…

Teetering on global war and financial collapse, followed by a re-framed Mad Max kind of world, see if these headlines really matter.

Nuclear effects on HF radio will be similar: Powerful Solar Flare Causes Widespread Radio Blackouts and Promises Spectacular Auroras.

Thanks for the open border: 2 Illegal Immigrants Charged In Alleged Sexual Assault Of 12-Year-Old Girl.

Those of us with websites and questions about SEO are shocked by some recent disclosures as Massive Leak At Google! Proof They LIED & Most Closely Guarded Secret Is Out! Political Censorship! Which is likely part and parcel with ‘Misinformation’ Honcho Says Jim Jordan Is ‘Assaulting’ Ad Industry By Asking For Documents That Could Prove Partisan Bias. Yah think?

And how about some medical lies breaking down? Another COVID ‘Conspiracy Theory’ Becomes True It turns out the deaths from COVID vaccinated patients were actually labeled as unvaccinated. Along with The CDC Doesn’t Want You to See This Data Research shows a fivefold INCREASE in autism rates among vaccinated versus unvaccinated children.

If you can’t trust your government, who can you trust?

At the Ranch: Rain Pain and Drain

One of our regular delivery drivers and I got to talking about the weather this year. “Gonna be a real turd floater tonight, I hear…”

Well, he was exactly right. Septic system roulette has us considering an incinerating backup system. Because of the damn odd behavior of ENSO in the past couple of years.

Up the road from us (Tyler, Texas) there is a semi-official 38.75 inches, or so, in the gauge already this year. Here in the Concorde Mountains of East Texas we’re past 40 and enroute to who knows how much.

2015 may be tied, though. That year, we had about 80-inches of rain. 74 inches and change and more here in the hills that aren’t Hill Country.

The good news, such as it is? All the power is back, the genset is preconnected and not more than 2-minutes from full power. The solar has useful output on even partly cloudy days, as all three of our internet on-ramps and three phone line choices are back.

I sure hope this is the end of the Big Drill. Another inch or two of rain is on tap for June (so far in the lookahead forecast).

Optimistically, I put the finishing touches on Instrumentation of Tomatoes which will be featured here in our ShopTalk Sunday series this weekend.

Write when the Coast Guard opens a motor lifeboat school in Dallas. Astoria, Oregon is too far to drive.

George@Ure.net